Michael Pachter: One way or another, EA is going to buy Take-Two

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan Securities' gaming uber-analyst, just sent out a note on the ongoing mating dance between Electronic Arts and Take-Two.

In his opinion, EA will either buy Take-Two through a friendly, mutually-agreed upon deal, or Take-Two will spurn EA once again and EA will go into hostile-takeover mode:

In our view, there are only two potential outcomes: Either Take-Two negotiates a friendly deal at a price close to $25.74, or EA returns to hostile mode. In the former scenario, which we think is most likely, the parties should reach an accommodation within one or two days following FTC approval at a $1 - 2 premium to EA's current $25.74 offer. If Take-Two management overestimates its leverage and holds out for a price in the $30s, we expect EA to go hostile again, likely at a price closer to $20. We don't consider this likely, as we think that Take-Two management understands its lack of leverage, particularly given the dearth of other bidders. If Take-Two management remains realistic and negotiates a price below $27.50, we expect a deal to get done.